Abstract
This study examined the structural mechanisms and asymmetric normative frameworks through which comprehensive economic sanctions, using the United States embargo against Cuba (1962–present) as the primary paradigmatic case, function as instruments of political coercion in the contemporary international order. Drawing on a cross-national dataset of 63 sanctioned states spanning the period 1990–2023, the study employed a multi-method quantitative approach integrating univariate descriptive statistics, bivariate Pearson correlation analysis, binary logistic regression modelling, and systematic data visualization to interrogate the relationships between coercion intensity, economic performance, human development outcomes, and the duration of sanction regimes. The principal findings revealed a statistically significant and strongly negative correlation between the Economic Coercion Index (ECI) and GDP per capita (r = −0.712, p < 0.001), Human Development Index scores (r = −0.681, p < 0.001), and trade volume as a proportion of GDP (r = −0.638, p < 0.001), while demonstrating significant positive associations with poverty rates (r = 0.694, p < 0.001) and inflation (r = 0.521, p < 0.001). The logistic regression model, which demonstrated strong predictive validity (AUC = 0.874; Nagelkerke R² = 0.612), confirmed that coercion intensity, duration of sanctions, and GDP per capita were the most powerful independent predictors of severe economic contraction, controlling for trade openness and institutional repression. The comparative panel analysis across eight case states, including Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela, demonstrated that comprehensive sanctions of prolonged duration uniformly produced the most severe socioeconomic outcomes, disproportionately affecting civilian populations rather than governing elites. The study concluded that the Cuban embargo, far from constituting a legitimate instrument of democratization or security coercion, operates as a structural mechanism of civilizational suffocation — reinforcing asymmetric international power relations and producing demonstrable human development deficits inconsistent with stated foreign policy objectives. The study recommended multilateral reform of sanctions governance frameworks, the introduction of binding humanitarian carve-out protocols, and the adoption of sunset clauses to enforce periodic evidence-based review of extended embargo regimes.
Keywords
Cuban embargo, economic coercion, sanctions regimes, political economy, human development, asymmetric international relations, logistic regression, comparative sanctions analysis