MJAAR

From Festive Consumption to National Capital: Policy Lessons for Redirecting Seasonal Expenditure in Uganda

Dr. Arinaitwe Julius, Asiimwe Isaac Kazaara


Abstract

Uganda experiences pronounced seasonal consumption patterns during festive periods, with households allocating substantial resources to celebrations while facing persistent infrastructure deficits and inadequate domestic savings rates. This study examined the magnitude, determinants, and policy redirection opportunities of festive expenditure through a mixed-methods design combining quantitative analysis of 1,847 households across Uganda's four regions and qualitative insights from 45 key informant interviews and 12 focus group discussions conducted between October 2024 and February 2025. Employing univariate analysis, bivariate tests, and mixed-effects regression models that accounted for hierarchical data structures, the research quantified festive expenditure patterns, identified predictors of spending behavior, and assessed the feasibility of alternative policy interventions for redirecting consumption toward productive national capital formation. Results revealed that Ugandan households spent an average of UGX 1,687,000 (9.9% of annual income) during festive seasons, with substantial variation across income quintiles (UGX 287,000 for low-income to UGX 6,127,000 for high-income households) and geographic locations (urban households spending 3.9 times more than rural counterparts). Critically, 35% of households incurred debt to finance festive consumption, with debt rates reaching 42-48% among lower-income quintiles, and 67% of high festive spenders depleted more than half their savings, leading to first-quarter financial difficulties for 71% of this group. Mixed-effects models (marginal R²=0.487, conditional R²=0.623) identified peer pressure (β=123.45, p

Keywords

estive expenditure seasonal consumption patterns domestic resource mobilization matched savings schemes
Metropolitan Journal of Academic and Applied Research

Cite This Article

Dr. Arinaitwe Julius & Asiimwe Isaac Kazaara (2026). From Festive Consumption to National Capital: Policy Lessons for Redirecting Seasonal Expenditure in Uganda. Metropolitan Journal of Academic and Applied Research, 5(3). https://journals.miu.ac.ug/pages/article.php?article_id=257

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