MJAAR

Digital Credit Expansion as Compensatory Financial Infrastructure: Analyzing MTN Uganda's 66.7% Loan Growth and National Development Implications

Dr. Arinaitwe Julius, Asiimwe Isaac Kazaara


Abstract

This study examined digital credit expansion as a form of compensatory financial infrastructure, with specific focus on MTN Uganda's Mobile Money (MoMo) loan portfolio, which recorded a 66.7% growth between 2021 and 2023. Operating within the theoretical framework of financial intermediation and digital financial services, the study investigated how this unprecedented credit surge influenced financial inclusion, household income levels, and macroeconomic growth in Uganda. A mixed-methods design was employed, integrating quantitative data from 320 respondents drawn through stratified random sampling, alongside qualitative insights from 120 purposively selected key informants including financial regulators, MTN Uganda officials, SME operators, and rural borrowers. Quantitative data were analysed using univariate descriptive statistics, bivariate Pearson correlation analysis, and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), while qualitative data underwent thematic content analysis. Results revealed statistically significant positive associations between loan portfolio growth and financial inclusion (β = 0.621, p < 0.001), GDP growth (β = 0.534, p < 0.001), and household income improvement (β = 0.478, p < 0.001). Mobile network penetration emerged as the strongest antecedent of digital credit expansion (β = 0.589, p < 0.001). Qualitative findings identified eight dominant themes including emergency credit access, business capital expansion, high interest rate burden, and regulatory transparency gaps. The study concluded that MTN Uganda's digital credit growth functioned effectively as compensatory financial infrastructure, bridging critical gaps left by conventional banking institutions, though persistent challenges of over-indebtedness, digital exclusion of rural populations, and weak regulatory frameworks undermined the full realization of its developmental potential. The study recommended strengthening regulatory oversight on mobile credit, investing in rural digital infrastructure, and promoting financial literacy programmes to maximize the developmental impact of digital credit systems.

Keywords

Digital credit MTN Uganda MoMo loans financial inclusion compensatory infrastructure mobile money financial intermediation Uganda.
Metropolitan Journal of Academic and Applied Research

Cite This Article

Dr. Arinaitwe Julius & Asiimwe Isaac Kazaara (2026). Digital Credit Expansion as Compensatory Financial Infrastructure: Analyzing MTN Uganda's 66.7% Loan Growth and National Development Implications. Metropolitan Journal of Academic and Applied Research, 5(4). https://journals.miu.ac.ug/pages/article.php?article_id=381

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